{
 "_note": "本文件是 work/results/ 下几份原始结果的汇总视图，供交付页渲染。数字与 analysis.json 逐项一致，没有任何新计算。",
 "prediction_outcome": "refuted_but_not_interpretable",
 "headline": {
  "claim": "预注册主分析因样本量不足没有跑成（严格口径下只剩 3 个观测）；放宽到预注册里事先写好的敏感性口径后（10 个观测），测到一个正向关联——旅游接待人次每翻一倍，近岸优良水质比例高 29.1 个百分点（偏相关 0.896，零模型 p=0.015，三个种子一致）。但它几乎全部来自城市之间的地理差异：城市间水质差 10.5 个百分点，同一座城市三年里只差 0.48 个百分点，而按城市重抽的区间横跨 −1.00 到 1.00。不能读成旅游改善了水质。",
  "prereg_main_analysis_n": 3,
  "sensitivity_analysis_n": 10,
  "partial_r_visitors": 0.8962416147764051,
  "beta_per_doubling_visitors_pp": 29.11991879849699,
  "perm_p_visitors_three_seeds": [
   0.014797040591881624,
   0.015596880623875225,
   0.012997400519896021
  ],
  "freedman_lane_p_visitors_three_seeds": [
   0.0009998000399920016,
   0.0005998800239952009,
   0.0005998800239952009
  ],
  "bootstrap_partial_r_ci_seed0": [
   -0.9999999999999999,
   1.0000000000000002
  ],
  "partial_r_revenue": 0.828534015437072,
  "perm_p_revenue_three_seeds": [
   0.04039192161567687,
   0.03499300139972006,
   0.03459308138372325
  ],
  "delta_r2_visitors": 0.48644439979028,
  "between_city_sd_pp": 10.525946777157653,
  "within_city_sd_pp": 0.48047378541243746,
  "ruler_positive_p_three_seeds": [
   0.195,
   0.004,
   0.01
  ],
  "ruler_negative_p_three_seeds": [
   0.277,
   0.149,
   0.788
  ],
  "power_curve_n10": {
   "0.0": 0.07,
   "0.2": 0.06,
   "0.4": 0.215,
   "0.6": 0.4,
   "0.8": 0.86
  }
 },
 "dataset": "山东 7 个沿海城市 2021–2023 的公开统计公报与生态环境公报；21 个城市-年份格子里五项数据同时齐全的只有 10 个，按预注册口径规则能进主分析的只有 3 个。85 条记录的 URL、来源文件与原文片段全部随包交付。",
 "data_coverage": {
  "cells_filled": {
   "water_good_pct": 14,
   "tourism_visitors": 15,
   "tourism_revenue": 15,
   "resident_pop": 21,
   "secondary_gdp": 20
  },
  "complete_city_years_all": 10,
  "complete_city_years_strict_caliber": 3,
  "complete_rows": [
   "东营2021",
   "东营2023",
   "威海2021",
   "威海2022",
   "日照2023",
   "潍坊2023",
   "烟台2021",
   "青岛2021",
   "青岛2022",
   "青岛2023"
  ],
  "dropped_for_caliber_mismatch": [
   {
    "city": "青岛",
    "field": "tourism_visitors",
    "calibers": [
     "国内",
     "未分内外"
    ]
   },
   {
    "city": "青岛",
    "field": "tourism_revenue",
    "calibers": [
     "国内",
     "未分内外"
    ]
   },
   {
    "city": "威海",
    "field": "tourism_visitors",
    "calibers": [
     "国内",
     "未分内外"
    ]
   },
   {
    "city": "威海",
    "field": "tourism_revenue",
    "calibers": [
     "国内",
     "未分内外"
    ]
   },
   {
    "city": "东营",
    "field": "tourism_visitors",
    "calibers": [
     "国内",
     "未分内外"
    ]
   },
   {
    "city": "东营",
    "field": "tourism_revenue",
    "calibers": [
     "国内",
     "未分内外"
    ]
   }
  ],
  "total_possible": 21
 },
 "runtime_sec": 14.4,
 "compute": "CPU only，无 GPU",
 "seeds": [
  0,
  1,
  2
 ]
}