{
 "_note": "本文件是 work/results/ 下几份原始结果的汇总视图，供交付页渲染。数字与 analysis.json 逐项一致，没有任何新计算。",
 "headline": {
  "conclusion": "预注册主假设 H1 被推翻：在这张真实 Reddit 时变图上，离线强化学习没有打过平凡启发式。",
  "offline_rl_relative_reduction_vs_null_median_pct": 15.869930858361785,
  "extremity_greedy_relative_reduction_vs_null_median_pct": 34.986602059937724,
  "primary_count_statement": "0/12 个评估种子上更好",
  "primary_median_paired_diff": -0.025084691357051242,
  "primary_wilcoxon_p_two_sided_exact": 0.00048828125,
  "primary_rank_biserial": -1.0,
  "ruler_positive_control_p": 0.00048828125,
  "ruler_negative_control_p": 0.7333984375,
  "all_budgets_respected": true
 },
 "dataset": {
  "dataset": "SNAP soc-redditHyperlinks-body.tsv — Reddit Hyperlink Network, Kumar et al., WWW 2018",
  "download": "https://snap.stanford.edu/data/soc-redditHyperlinks-body.tsv（匿名游客直连，无需注册 / API key / DUA）",
  "sha256_body_tsv": "9bbf57511dc0da7369c2e896d865b68f170136def4f223f4c9e9e10818f4bfb5",
  "n_nodes": 247,
  "induced_edges": 44623,
  "induced_negative_edges": 8040,
  "induced_negative_fraction": 0.180176,
  "n_windows": 40,
  "train_window_range": [
   "2014-01",
   "2015-12"
  ],
  "eval_window_range": [
   "2016-01",
   "2017-04"
  ]
 },
 "per_arm": {
  "null_no_intervention": {
   "P_end_median": 0.1226315593914365,
   "P_end_mean": 0.12538640952202482,
   "P_end_std": 0.009723890752485904,
   "P_auc_median": 0.11408300719018998,
   "reduction_vs_null_median": 0.0,
   "relative_reduction_vs_null_median_pct": 0.0,
   "budget_declared": 0,
   "spend_min": 0,
   "spend_max": 0,
   "budget_respected": true
  },
  "random_budget_matched": {
   "P_end_median": 0.11059644168170807,
   "P_end_mean": 0.11204591023160078,
   "P_end_std": 0.008615112638729527,
   "P_auc_median": 0.10657318992302238,
   "reduction_vs_null_median": 0.01292033805773718,
   "relative_reduction_vs_null_median_pct": 10.718620705065938,
   "budget_declared": 96,
   "spend_min": 96,
   "spend_max": 96,
   "budget_respected": true
  },
  "degree_top_b": {
   "P_end_median": 0.11877806487625853,
   "P_end_mean": 0.12119984278263651,
   "P_end_std": 0.009731382034106928,
   "P_auc_median": 0.10913430632914103,
   "reduction_vs_null_median": 0.003839151466452473,
   "relative_reduction_vs_null_median_pct": 2.8876583211877573,
   "budget_declared": 96,
   "spend_min": 96,
   "spend_max": 96,
   "budget_respected": true
  },
  "extremity_top_b": {
   "P_end_median": 0.07897354803701175,
   "P_end_mean": 0.08065913598328009,
   "P_end_std": 0.005895346106319684,
   "P_auc_median": 0.07733018143781434,
   "reduction_vs_null_median": 0.04334358299599329,
   "relative_reduction_vs_null_median_pct": 34.986602059937724,
   "budget_declared": 96,
   "spend_min": 96,
   "spend_max": 96,
   "budget_respected": true
  },
  "extremity_double_budget": {
   "P_end_median": 0.06309743674244532,
   "P_end_mean": 0.06368390021077029,
   "P_end_std": 0.0046677477082306615,
   "P_auc_median": 0.06133439666662839,
   "reduction_vs_null_median": 0.06010799078558954,
   "relative_reduction_vs_null_median_pct": 48.876084329508984,
   "budget_declared": 192,
   "spend_min": 192,
   "spend_max": 192,
   "budget_respected": true
  },
  "offline_rl_fqi": {
   "P_end_median": 0.1038386048807679,
   "P_end_mean": 0.10523002445759372,
   "P_end_std": 0.007464306420715723,
   "P_auc_median": 0.07844753143595634,
   "reduction_vs_null_median": 0.020430995045277664,
   "relative_reduction_vs_null_median_pct": 15.869930858361785,
   "budget_declared": 96,
   "spend_min": 96,
   "spend_max": 96,
   "budget_respected": true
  },
  "random_variant_a": {
   "P_end_median": 0.11168955208639764,
   "P_end_mean": 0.11282259168183183,
   "P_end_std": 0.00804478583761744,
   "P_auc_median": 0.1064339579044365,
   "reduction_vs_null_median": 0.012768521737746931,
   "relative_reduction_vs_null_median_pct": 9.732954663201255,
   "budget_declared": 96,
   "spend_min": 96,
   "spend_max": 96,
   "budget_respected": true
  },
  "random_variant_b": {
   "P_end_median": 0.11188730676087574,
   "P_end_mean": 0.11343964685113916,
   "P_end_std": 0.00911524944615786,
   "P_auc_median": 0.10581131595834799,
   "reduction_vs_null_median": 0.011502295002374444,
   "relative_reduction_vs_null_median_pct": 9.650157423848352,
   "budget_declared": 96,
   "spend_min": 96,
   "spend_max": 96,
   "budget_respected": true
  }
 },
 "tests": {
  "H1_primary_rl_vs_extremity_P_end": {
   "comparison": "offline_rl_fqi 对 extremity_top_b（主对照）",
   "metric": "P_end",
   "n_seeds": 12,
   "n_seeds_better": 0,
   "count_statement": "0/12 个评估种子上更好",
   "median_paired_diff": -0.025084691357051242,
   "mean_paired_diff": -0.02457088847431363,
   "wilcoxon_statistic": 0.0,
   "wilcoxon_p_two_sided_exact": 0.00048828125,
   "rank_biserial": -1.0,
   "paired_diffs": [
    -0.021927712446312725,
    -0.022401237435484264,
    -0.02619151690807303,
    -0.0267529499155041,
    -0.02936549543634323,
    -0.025522493046605185,
    -0.025233398731026535,
    -0.02493598398307595,
    -0.022606781828032774,
    -0.021608238672870317,
    -0.025880112838786953,
    -0.022424740449648456
   ]
  },
  "H1_secondary_rl_vs_extremity_P_auc": {
   "comparison": "offline_rl_fqi 对 extremity_top_b（次要终点 AUC）",
   "metric": "P_auc",
   "n_seeds": 12,
   "n_seeds_better": 0,
   "count_statement": "0/12 个评估种子上更好",
   "median_paired_diff": -0.0016373676611624866,
   "mean_paired_diff": -0.0019589379269673913,
   "wilcoxon_statistic": 0.0,
   "wilcoxon_p_two_sided_exact": 0.00048828125,
   "rank_biserial": -1.0,
   "paired_diffs": [
    -4.6827672733812387e-05,
    -0.0010344858291327363,
    -0.001606996092553617,
    -0.0012760628671751872,
    -0.001640061042391297,
    -0.002695833479585824,
    -0.002830368683059012,
    -0.0019534285560293546,
    -0.0013214651256498872,
    -0.001634674279933676,
    -0.00349700951879911,
    -0.003970041976565183
   ]
  },
  "H2_sanity_random_budget_matched_vs_null_P_end": {
   "comparison": "random_budget_matched 对零模型 null_no_intervention",
   "metric": "P_end",
   "n_seeds": 12,
   "n_seeds_better": 12,
   "count_statement": "12/12 个评估种子上更好",
   "median_paired_diff": 0.01292033805773718,
   "mean_paired_diff": 0.013340499290424052,
   "wilcoxon_statistic": 0.0,
   "wilcoxon_p_two_sided_exact": 0.00048828125,
   "rank_biserial": 1.0,
   "paired_diffs": [
    0.008927014245749793,
    0.012888824087973053,
    0.01094019032116103,
    0.014229303616600741,
    0.02280400031996517,
    0.014925314736240064,
    0.009692946884209186,
    0.011605699325504037,
    0.015082836877671466,
    0.01402594076967359,
    0.01201206827283921,
    0.012951852027501307
   ]
  },
  "H2_sanity_degree_top_b_vs_null_P_end": {
   "comparison": "degree_top_b 对零模型 null_no_intervention",
   "metric": "P_end",
   "n_seeds": 12,
   "n_seeds_better": 12,
   "count_statement": "12/12 个评估种子上更好",
   "median_paired_diff": 0.003839151466452473,
   "mean_paired_diff": 0.004186566739388332,
   "wilcoxon_statistic": 0.0,
   "wilcoxon_p_two_sided_exact": 0.00048828125,
   "rank_biserial": 1.0,
   "paired_diffs": [
    0.0037148788481421724,
    0.004545451965987768,
    0.00626531909488931,
    0.004931105171630923,
    0.003883644462285063,
    0.0037946584706198827,
    0.002797473701134201,
    0.0032235820199240095,
    0.006792025363962437,
    0.0017546724997505453,
    0.0033757422233833406,
    0.005160247050950334
   ]
  },
  "H2_sanity_extremity_top_b_vs_null_P_end": {
   "comparison": "extremity_top_b 对零模型 null_no_intervention",
   "metric": "P_end",
   "n_seeds": 12,
   "n_seeds_better": 12,
   "count_statement": "12/12 个评估种子上更好",
   "median_paired_diff": 0.04334358299599329,
   "mean_paired_diff": 0.044727273538744734,
   "wilcoxon_statistic": 0.0,
   "wilcoxon_p_two_sided_exact": 0.00048828125,
   "rank_biserial": 1.0,
   "paired_diffs": [
    0.04323088436623433,
    0.043456281625752255,
    0.04784170849115853,
    0.048824452158953424,
    0.05566803673539786,
    0.04532943894689252,
    0.04174097560094164,
    0.04802762301012299,
    0.041467469836930324,
    0.0405208817543358,
    0.042324172457376213,
    0.03829535748084098
   ]
  },
  "H2_sanity_offline_rl_fqi_vs_null_P_end": {
   "comparison": "offline_rl_fqi 对零模型 null_no_intervention",
   "metric": "P_end",
   "n_seeds": 12,
   "n_seeds_better": 12,
   "count_statement": "12/12 个评估种子上更好",
   "median_paired_diff": 0.020430995045277664,
   "mean_paired_diff": 0.020156385064431112,
   "wilcoxon_statistic": 0.0,
   "wilcoxon_p_two_sided_exact": 0.00048828125,
   "rank_biserial": 1.0,
   "paired_diffs": [
    0.021303171919921607,
    0.02105504419026799,
    0.021650191583085496,
    0.022071502243449323,
    0.026302541299054627,
    0.019806945900287337,
    0.016507576869915108,
    0.023091639027047042,
    0.01886068800889755,
    0.01891264308146548,
    0.01644405961858926,
    0.015870617031192524
   ]
  },
  "H3_ruler_positive_double_vs_single_budget": {
   "comparison": "extremity_double_budget 对 extremity_top_b（正对照：预算翻倍，方向已知）",
   "metric": "P_end",
   "n_seeds": 12,
   "n_seeds_better": 12,
   "count_statement": "12/12 个评估种子上更好",
   "median_paired_diff": 0.016875490903188572,
   "mean_paired_diff": 0.0169752357725098,
   "wilcoxon_statistic": 0.0,
   "wilcoxon_p_two_sided_exact": 0.00048828125,
   "rank_biserial": 1.0,
   "paired_diffs": [
    0.01727284204583246,
    0.01625597353336003,
    0.019850375154152763,
    0.017289993022177194,
    0.020409739083039585,
    0.016820953774796518,
    0.015013324437683065,
    0.0175144670531664,
    0.016930028031580627,
    0.015682614966516767,
    0.01603085231161748,
    0.014631665856194721
   ]
  },
  "H4_ruler_negative_random_a_vs_b": {
   "comparison": "random_variant_a 对 random_variant_b（负对照：应无系统差异）",
   "metric": "P_end",
   "n_seeds": 12,
   "n_seeds_better": 6,
   "count_statement": "6/12 个评估种子上更好",
   "median_paired_diff": 0.00022676800437711891,
   "mean_paired_diff": 0.0006170551693073361,
   "wilcoxon_statistic": 34.0,
   "wilcoxon_p_two_sided_exact": 0.7333984375,
   "rank_biserial": 0.1282051282051282,
   "paired_diffs": [
    -0.0003272820074854549,
    -0.0011667676745135136,
    0.0007248377933209704,
    -0.0014891829514212668,
    0.0036368940972065222,
    0.002504015648094826,
    -0.0002713017845667326,
    0.0014370877202480037,
    -0.0069754514857306715,
    0.006776597141776711,
    0.0062270599565809465,
    -0.0036718444218223067
   ]
  }
 },
 "verdict": {
  "H1_primary": "refuted",
  "H2_sanity": "supported",
  "H3_ruler_positive": "supported",
  "H4_ruler_negative": "supported"
 },
 "graph_null_model_sign_shuffled": {
  "what": "保持拓扑、时间戳次序、正负边总数，只把全部边的 ±1 符号全局随机置换",
  "real_null_P_end_median": 0.1226315593914365,
  "shuffled_null_P_end_median": 0.11411959999338647,
  "real_extremity_reduction_median": 0.04334358299599329,
  "shuffled_extremity_reduction_median": 0.03940552613246403,
  "null_level_shift_test": {
   "comparison": "符号打乱图 对 真实图（零模型臂的极化水平）",
   "metric": "P_end",
   "n_seeds": 12,
   "n_seeds_better": 12,
   "count_statement": "12/12 个评估种子上更好",
   "median_paired_diff": 0.010703045277289568,
   "mean_paired_diff": 0.010906021238122074,
   "wilcoxon_statistic": 0.0,
   "wilcoxon_p_two_sided_exact": 0.00048828125,
   "rank_biserial": 1.0,
   "paired_diffs": [
    0.013218456386472496,
    0.009958704089873066,
    0.01632712126780074,
    0.01524506101951141,
    0.011927290742681312,
    0.014477608259881147,
    0.010449361653108558,
    0.00961631662089267,
    0.006432706981784012,
    0.0022990301278418973,
    0.010956728901470578,
    0.009963868806146997
   ]
  }
 },
 "budget_accounting": {
  "null_no_intervention": {
   "declared": 0,
   "max_spend_over_seeds": 0,
   "respected": true
  },
  "random_budget_matched": {
   "declared": 96,
   "max_spend_over_seeds": 96,
   "respected": true
  },
  "degree_top_b": {
   "declared": 96,
   "max_spend_over_seeds": 96,
   "respected": true
  },
  "extremity_top_b": {
   "declared": 96,
   "max_spend_over_seeds": 96,
   "respected": true
  },
  "extremity_double_budget": {
   "declared": 192,
   "max_spend_over_seeds": 192,
   "respected": true
  },
  "offline_rl_fqi": {
   "declared": 96,
   "max_spend_over_seeds": 96,
   "respected": true
  },
  "random_variant_a": {
   "declared": 96,
   "max_spend_over_seeds": 96,
   "respected": true
  },
  "random_variant_b": {
   "declared": 96,
   "max_spend_over_seeds": 96,
   "respected": true
  }
 },
 "policy_trajectory": {
  "what": "策略轨迹报告：离线 RL 在留出期 16 个月窗上的出手时机、出手规模与被扰动节点",
  "eval_windows": [
   "2016-01",
   "2017-04"
  ],
  "rl_picks_per_window_mean": [
   12.0,
   12.0,
   12.0,
   12.0,
   12.0,
   12.0,
   12.0,
   12.0,
   0.0,
   0.0,
   0.0,
   0.0,
   0.0,
   0.0,
   0.0,
   0.0
  ],
  "extremity_picks_per_window_mean": [
   12.0,
   0.0,
   12.0,
   0.0,
   12.0,
   0.0,
   12.0,
   0.0,
   12.0,
   0.0,
   12.0,
   0.0,
   12.0,
   0.0,
   12.0,
   0.0
  ],
  "rl_total_spend_per_seed": {
   "101": 96,
   "102": 96,
   "103": 96,
   "104": 96,
   "105": 96,
   "106": 96,
   "107": 96,
   "108": 96,
   "109": 96,
   "110": 96,
   "111": 96,
   "112": 96
  },
  "extremity_total_spend_per_seed": {
   "101": 96,
   "102": 96,
   "103": 96,
   "104": 96,
   "105": 96,
   "106": 96,
   "107": 96,
   "108": 96,
   "109": 96,
   "110": 96,
   "111": 96,
   "112": 96
  },
  "rl_top20_nodes": [
   {
    "subreddit": "clashofclans",
    "times_selected": 26
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "shitamericanssay",
    "times_selected": 23
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "aznidentity",
    "times_selected": 23
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "skeptic",
    "times_selected": 19
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "civcraft",
    "times_selected": 19
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "shitgreeddisastersays",
    "times_selected": 19
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "metanarchism",
    "times_selected": 18
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "magicthecirclejerking",
    "times_selected": 18
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "hearthstonecirclejerk",
    "times_selected": 17
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "trueoffmychest",
    "times_selected": 16
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "circloljerk",
    "times_selected": 15
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "banned",
    "times_selected": 15
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "brokehugs",
    "times_selected": 14
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "metacanada",
    "times_selected": 14
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "subredditoftheday",
    "times_selected": 13
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "stalkerwatch",
    "times_selected": 13
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "abuseinterrupted",
    "times_selected": 13
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "btc",
    "times_selected": 13
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "worstof",
    "times_selected": 13
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "skyrim",
    "times_selected": 12
   }
  ],
  "extremity_top20_nodes": [
   {
    "subreddit": "hearthstonecirclejerk",
    "times_selected": 37
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "aznidentity",
    "times_selected": 31
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "clashofclans",
    "times_selected": 25
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "metanarchism",
    "times_selected": 25
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "shitgreeddisastersays",
    "times_selected": 24
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "civcraft",
    "times_selected": 21
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "shitamericanssay",
    "times_selected": 20
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "banned",
    "times_selected": 20
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "abuseinterrupted",
    "times_selected": 19
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "skeptic",
    "times_selected": 18
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "subredditoftheday",
    "times_selected": 18
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "ainbow",
    "times_selected": 18
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "stalkerwatch",
    "times_selected": 17
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "metacanada",
    "times_selected": 17
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "bandnames",
    "times_selected": 17
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "circloljerk",
    "times_selected": 16
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "trueoffmychest",
    "times_selected": 16
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "brokehugs",
    "times_selected": 16
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "magicthecirclejerking",
    "times_selected": 16
   },
   {
    "subreddit": "shitghazisays",
    "times_selected": 15
   }
  ],
  "node_overlap_fraction_rl_vs_extremity": 0.8177,
  "n_distinct_nodes_touched_rl": 201,
  "n_distinct_nodes_touched_extremity": 156
 },
 "independent_recheck": {
  "implementation": "纯标准库全枚举，不依赖 scipy/numpy",
  "agrees_with_main_analysis": true,
  "tests": {
   "H1_primary_rl_vs_extremity_P_end": {
    "median_paired_diff": -0.025084691357051242,
    "wilcoxon_p_two_sided_exact": 0.00048828125,
    "rank_biserial": -1.0,
    "n_seeds_better": 0
   },
   "H1_secondary_rl_vs_extremity_P_auc": {
    "median_paired_diff": -0.0016373676611624866,
    "wilcoxon_p_two_sided_exact": 0.00048828125,
    "rank_biserial": -1.0,
    "n_seeds_better": 0
   },
   "H2_sanity_random_budget_matched_vs_null_P_end": {
    "median_paired_diff": 0.01292033805773718,
    "wilcoxon_p_two_sided_exact": 0.00048828125,
    "rank_biserial": 1.0,
    "n_seeds_better": 12
   },
   "H2_sanity_degree_top_b_vs_null_P_end": {
    "median_paired_diff": 0.003839151466452473,
    "wilcoxon_p_two_sided_exact": 0.00048828125,
    "rank_biserial": 1.0,
    "n_seeds_better": 12
   },
   "H2_sanity_extremity_top_b_vs_null_P_end": {
    "median_paired_diff": 0.04334358299599329,
    "wilcoxon_p_two_sided_exact": 0.00048828125,
    "rank_biserial": 1.0,
    "n_seeds_better": 12
   },
   "H2_sanity_offline_rl_fqi_vs_null_P_end": {
    "median_paired_diff": 0.020430995045277664,
    "wilcoxon_p_two_sided_exact": 0.00048828125,
    "rank_biserial": 1.0,
    "n_seeds_better": 12
   },
   "H3_ruler_positive_double_vs_single_budget": {
    "median_paired_diff": 0.016875490903188572,
    "wilcoxon_p_two_sided_exact": 0.00048828125,
    "rank_biserial": 1.0,
    "n_seeds_better": 12
   },
   "H4_ruler_negative_random_a_vs_b": {
    "median_paired_diff": 0.00022676800437711891,
    "wilcoxon_p_two_sided_exact": 0.7333984375,
    "rank_biserial": 0.1282051282051282,
    "n_seeds_better": 6
   }
  }
 }
}